Defence Holds the Line
The Toronto Blue Jays’ defence entered Game 7 of the 2025 World Series ranked No. 1 in Runs Saved by skill among MLB teams. That profile set the stage for a team that could win tight contests even when the bat lagged.
In Game 7, Toronto’s centre-fielder Daulton Varsho (43 Runs Saved in 2025 according to advanced metrics) made several highlight catches that turned potential extra-base hits into routine outs. One of those, a diving grab in the 5th inning with runners in scoring position, crushed a rally for the opponent and swung win probability in Toronto’s favour.
Beyond Varsho, catcher Alejandro Kirk and second-baseman Andrés Giménez provided top-tier defence: the catchers posted 19 Runs Saved on defence this season and Giménez remains the MLB leader in Defensive Runs Saved among second basemen for four seasons running. Those runs saved are not “nice to haves” — they translate into dozens of prevented runs over a full season, which matter heavily in tight postseason games.
In Game 7, the turning point came in the 9th: Toronto loaded the bases but a ground-out into a 4-6-3 double play — triggered by alert giménez at second — ended the threat. In postseason context, that one defensive play prevented an expected ~1.2 runs (based on WPA models). The defence kept Toronto alive when the offence sputtered.
Offence: Strong, but RISP Slips
Toronto closed the regular season at 94-68, top of the AL East. Though they flashed elite defence, their offence with runners in scoring position (RISP) did not dominate. The team batted just .265 in RISP, meaning they converted only one in four chances when the pressure was highest.
In Game 7 the Jays had five chances with RISP but recorded only two hits and one run. From an analytics perspective, boosting RISP conversion by 50 points (to, say, .315) would equate to ~12 extra runs over 162 games — easily the difference between a tight Series win and loss.
Their star slugger, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., posted a .442 average with six homers and 12 RBIs in the postseason. Yet even his production could not fully compensate for the collective RISP dip. When analytics look at “runs lost” via stranded runners, Toronto’s value here lagged their defensive excellence.
Strategic Fixes for Scoring More in RISP
1. Elevate situational hitting by batting order tweaks: Analytics show placing contact hitters ahead of the slug-threats increases RISP opportunities without changing staffing.
2. Use shift-averse pull hitters in RISP spots: Statcast data indicates pulled grounders with RISP score ~12% more. A slight tilt in lineup construction can pay big.
3. Aggressive baserunning when RISP and two-out: For teams strong on defence like Toronto’s, every half-run counts. Analytics support going first-to-third with one out in >60% of right match-ups.
4. Maintain elite defence to complement tight offence: Toronto’s defence saved ~40-50 runs more than the MLB average this year. That cushion allows pressure on batters to “make productive outs” rather than swing wildly in RISP.
Final Word
In Game 7 the Blue Jays’ defence kept them alive. But if they want to win “do-or-die” games more consistently, their analytics team will tell them: convert those RISP chances. Their defence can cut half a run per game; their offence must pick up the other half. When both gears sync, championships follow.